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Short Description: Mideast nuclear missile threats. The most important missile-defense test of ... is the weapon element of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (GMD). ...
Content Inside: Recent Successes in U.S. Missile-Defense Testing Can Counter the Iranian Nuclear Missile Breakout March 2006 by Robert Jastrow, Chair Emeritus, and Jeff Kueter, President, George Marshall Institute Four years ago we predicted that a potentially catastrophic combination of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles would arise in the midst of the unstable states, and confront the United States with a threat to our very existence. Recent developments in Iran show that this forecast was optimistic. The Iranian announcement that they are restarting their nuclear program elevates the urgency of US missile defenses. In early January of 2006, Iran broke the U.N. seals on its nuclear reactors and reprocessing facilities, in defiance of international efforts to halt its nuclear weapons program. Iran claims that this program is intended solely for “peaceful energy research,” but in view of Iran’s stated intentions to annihilate the state of Israel, ongoing support of terrorism, and continuing development of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile with a range great enough to threaten the entire Middle East and parts of Europe, the need for effective U.S. missile defenses has never been greater. These developments are unfolding much as we predicted, four years ago, but recent successes in U.S. ballistic missile defenses offer the promise of defeating these Mideast nuclear missile threats. The most important missile-defense test of 2005 was the successful launch of a Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) from an operational silo. The GBI is the weapon element of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (GMD). That indicated that the reliability and quality control problems plaguing the GMD system for the last two years have been resolved. The GMD radars operated and commanded the launch. In flight, the GBI took over and used all their in-flight information. All elements worked as expected. This test of the GBI was the major precursor for the interceptor test that is planned for this spring. Also of prime importance was the successful intercept of an intermediate range missile with the radar and interceptor off a Navy Aegis cruiser. With no prior warning, the Aegis radar detected the missile and a Block 2 missile intercepted it. Of particular note was that the interceptor locked on and hit the warhead early in its flight as it separated from its booster-stage, a first for missile-defenses. Such systems could protect US and allied forces and assets throughout the Pacific, as well as against the Iranian Shahab-3. The third development of major significance was the successful test of the pointing and tracking system for the Air-Borne Laser, or ABL. This system has the promise to conduct boost-phase interceptions of missiles launched from small countries, which could largely negate the capability of countries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria. The recent tests demonstrated key capabilities of the overall Missile Defense system including the ability to hit a target missile consistently and the successful integration of a nationwide command and communications system. The knowledge gained from these tests will give us ever-improving defenses against ballistic missile threats posed by those who wish us harm. The Marshall Institute Policy Outlook series will periodically examine important issues affecting science and public policy. Particularly focused on the use of scientific information in formulating policy decisions, Policy Outlooks will aim to provide clarity and objectivity to policy-relevant discussions. George C. Marshall Institute • 1625 K Street, NW, Suite 1050 • Washington, DC 20006 • 202-296-9655 • Fax 202-296-9714 • info@marshall.org • http://www.marshall.org
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